Bucky Irving

Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Running backRB1

Over 10 games last season Bucky Irving averaged 3.0 receptions and 28 yards on 62% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 3.6 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

3.6

0.6 above his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Rush attempts

14.7

Rushing yards

Anytime TD

24%

red-zone role (+0.07)

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 1 and 7 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	3.6 projected
26 wk3	MIN	52%	11.4%	4	2	12	15	46	0	3.3 -1.3
26 wk2	CLE	78%	12.1%	4	4	1	17	89	0	—
26 wk1	CIN	61%	25.9%	7	7	48	8	45	1	—
25 wk18	CAR	63%	9.1%	2	1	13	26	85	0	—
25 wk17	MIA	54%	13.6%	6	5	14	9	19	0	—
25 wk16	CAR	62%	0.0%	0	0	0	19	71	0	—
25 wk15	ATL	54%	9.4%	3	1	11	16	60	0	—
25 wk14	NO	49%	10.7%	3	2	26	15	55	1	—
25 wk13	ARI	52%	7.7%	2	2	20	17	61	1	—
25 wk4	PHI	61%	12.8%	5	5	102	15	63	1	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 12 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	7 of 12	58%
5+ receptions	4 of 12	33%
7+ receptions	1 of 12	8%
50+ receiving yards	2 of 12	17%
75+ receiving yards	1 of 12	8%
100+ receiving yards	1 of 12	8%
Scored a touchdown	5 of 12	42%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	Carries/gm	Rush yds/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	3	4.3	20.3	5.0	13.3	60.0	1	64%	16.5%
2025	10	3.0	27.7	3.5	17.3	58.8	4	62%	10.7%
2024	18	2.7	22.1	3.0	12.4	66.6	9	46%	9.3%

3 seasons of usage, 2024–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Bucky Irving sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the TB room — with sample size and t-statistic The whole Tampa Bay Buccaneers roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about running backs

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how much Do touchdowns repeat from year to year?Much less than receptions

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4