Tez Johnson

Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Wide receiverWR depth

Over 16 games last season Tez Johnson averaged 1.8 receptions and 20 yards on 47% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 1.0 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

1.0

0.8 below his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Anytime TD

red-zone AND third-down role (+0.11)

His snap share has fallen from last season. The projection is pulled down to reflect the smaller role rather than last year’s.

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 3 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.0 projected
26 wk3	MIN	23%	5.7%	2	1	8	0	0	0	0.8 +0.2
26 wk2	CLE	29%	12.1%	4	1	49	0	0	0	—
26 wk1	CIN	23%	3.7%	1	0	0	1	-4	0	—
25 wk18	CAR	13%	4.5%	1	1	17	1	5	0	—
25 wk17	MIA	16%	4.5%	2	2	19	0	0	0	—
25 wk16	CAR	25%	4.0%	1	1	-1	0	0	0	—
25 wk15	ATL	22%	3.1%	1	0	0	0	0	0	—
25 wk14	NO	46%	0.0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	—
25 wk13	ARI	57%	7.7%	2	1	5	0	0	0	—
25 wk12	LA	86%	12.9%	4	3	21	2	12	1	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 18 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	5 of 18	28%
5+ receptions	1 of 18	6%
7+ receptions	0 of 18	0%
50+ receiving yards	2 of 18	11%
75+ receiving yards	0 of 18	0%
100+ receiving yards	0 of 18	0%
Scored a touchdown	4 of 18	22%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	3	0.7	19.0	2.3	0	25%	7.2%
2025	16	1.8	20.1	2.8	5	47%	8.6%

2 seasons of usage, 2025–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

The whole Tampa Bay Buccaneers roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about wide receivers

Are players better coming off a bye week?They are slightly worse Do defenses shut down the other team’s best receiver?Barely

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4