Rashee Rice

Kansas City Chiefs · Wide receiverWR1

Over 8 games last season Rashee Rice averaged 6.6 receptions and 71 yards on 75% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 5.0 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

5.0

1.7 below his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Anytime TD

27%

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 2 and 8 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	5.0 projected
26 wk3	MIA	77%	39.1%	9	7	88	0	0	0	5.1 +1.9
26 wk2	IND	79%	14.0%	6	4	83	0	0	0	—
26 wk1	DEN	83%	8.0%	2	2	19	0	0	1	—
25 wk15	LAC	85%	36.7%	11	7	51	0	0	0	—
25 wk14	HOU	78%	27.6%	8	4	34	0	0	0	—
25 wk13	DAL	89%	37.5%	12	8	92	1	2	2	—
25 wk12	IND	62%	27.9%	12	8	141	0	0	0	—
25 wk11	DEN	76%	20.9%	9	6	38	0	0	0	—
25 wk9	BUF	82%	24.1%	7	4	80	2	6	1	—
25 wk8	WAS	86%	28.1%	9	9	93	2	12	1	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 10 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	9 of 10	90%
5+ receptions	6 of 10	60%
7+ receptions	5 of 10	50%
50+ receiving yards	6 of 10	60%
75+ receiving yards	5 of 10	50%
100+ receiving yards	1 of 10	10%
Scored a touchdown	5 of 10	50%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	3	4.3	63.3	5.7	1	80%	20.4%
2025	8	6.6	71.4	9.8	6	75%	29.0%
2024	4	6.0	72.0	7.2	2	60%	24.6%
2023	20	5.2	60.0	6.8	8	63%	19.4%

4 seasons of usage, 2023–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Rashee Rice sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the KC room — with sample size and t-statistic The whole Kansas City Chiefs roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about wide receivers

Are players better coming off a bye week?They are slightly worse Do defenses shut down the other team’s best receiver?Barely

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4