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If Rashee Rice is out, who gets his targets?

The Kansas City Chiefs room absorbs +2.39 receptions, and Jalen Royals takes the largest single share at +0.71. The work stays overwhelmingly inside the wide receiver room.

Where the work goes

Change in projected receptions for every other player in the offense. The bars are small on purpose — a vacated role is shared out, and any tool showing one replacement absorbing a whole target load is telling you something the data does not support.

Receptions gained if Rashee Rice sitsJalen Royals+0.7WR 17% snapsTyquan Thornton+0.5WR 58% snapsXavier Worthy+0.5WR 82% snapsTravis Kelce+0.1TE 78% snapsNoah Gray+0.1TE 56% snapsKenneth Walker III+0.1RB 74% snapsEmmett Johnson+0.1RB 27% snapsBrashard Smith+0.1RB 8% snapschange in projected receptions

Every player in the room

PlayerCatches nowIf he sitsChange
Rashee Rice WR · 80% snaps5.00—OUT
Travis Kelce TE · 78% snaps4.504.65+0.15
Xavier Worthy WR · 82% snaps3.704.18+0.48
Kenneth Walker III RB · 74% snaps2.802.93+0.13
Tyquan Thornton WR · 58% snaps1.902.41+0.51
Noah Gray TE · 56% snaps1.501.65+0.15
Emmett Johnson RB · 27% snaps1.101.23+0.13
Jalen Royals WR · 17% snaps0.701.41+0.71
Brashard Smith RB · 8% snaps0.600.73+0.13

What the data says happens

Measured across every regular-season game from 2018 onward, each beneficiary compared against his own trailing four-game form and net of what the same players do in weeks the room’s number one actually plays.

RoomReceptions gainednt
Receivers+0.5841,53711.16
Tight ends+0.1751,0803.33
Backs+0.1131,0112.00

The room total is predictable. Which player takes it is not. Every candidate predictor of who gains — pecking order, snap share, route depth, trailing targets — correlates at roughly r = 0.02. In any single week one player usually takes about 60% of what was vacated; it is simply not predictably the same one.

Rashee Rice’s full stats and usageSnap share, target share, game log and this week’s projection

Cascade effects 2018–2026, paired within player, net of control · projections as-of-week with no lookahead · 2026 week 4