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Kansas City Chiefs
This is a committee. Rashee Rice holds 20.4% of the targets, and the 13 tracked pass-catchers project for 23 receptions and 259 receiving yards in week 4.
Who owns the targets
Trailing target share, largest first. Target share reproduces at 0.92 between halves of a season, so this is a stable picture of the pecking order rather than a snapshot of one good game.
Receivers
| Player | Snap share | Target share | Proj. catches | Proj. rec yards | If he sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashee Rice WR1 | 80% | 20.4% | 5.0 | 61 | who benefits |
| Xavier Worthy WR2 | 82% | 16.3% | 3.8 | 42 | who benefits |
| Tyquan Thornton WR3 | 58% | 7.3% | 2.0 | 32 | — |
| Jalen Royals WR depth | 17% | 3.0% | 0.8 | 7 | — |
| Cyrus Allen WR depth | 2% | 1.3% | 0.4 | 3 | — |
| Nikko Remigio WR depth | 5% | 0.2% | 0.3 | 0 | — |
Tight ends
| Player | Snap share | Target share | Proj. catches | Proj. rec yards | If he sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce TE1 | 78% | 18.1% | 4.4 | 46 | who benefits |
| Noah Gray TE2 | 56% | 6.5% | 1.5 | 18 | who benefits |
| Jake Briningstool TE3 | 14% | 2.8% | 0.4 | 6 | — |
Backs
| Player | Snap share | Target share | Proj. catches | Proj. rec yards | If he sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker III RB1 | 74% | 18.7% | 2.8 | 32 | who benefits |
| Emmett Johnson RB2 | 27% | 4.2% | 1.1 | 12 | who benefits |
| Brashard Smith RB3 | 8% | 2.2% | 0.6 | 2 | — |
| Ben VanSumeren RB depth | 4% | 0.0% | 0.2 | -1 | — |
The ground game
Projected for 23 carries and 119 rushing yards, with Kenneth Walker III taking 76% of the work. Carries per game is the second most repeatable thing a player has — 0.97 between halves of a season — so a backfield split holds up far better than a touchdown rate does.
| Player | Carries | Rush yds | Yds/carry | Anytime TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker III RB | 17.5 | 95 | 5.40 | 55% |
| Emmett Johnson RB | 5.5 | 25 | 4.45 | 16% |
Whose role has changed since last season
Snap share this season against last, for anyone who has moved at least six points. This is the input the model leans on hardest early in a year, because snap share is already reliable at 0.84 after two games while receptions manage 0.66.