Xavier Worthy

Kansas City Chiefs · Wide receiverWR2

Over 14 games last season Xavier Worthy averaged 3.0 receptions and 38 yards on 71% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 3.8 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

3.8

0.8 above his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Anytime TD

31%

red-zone role (+0.11)

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 1 and 7 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	3.8 projected
26 wk3	MIA	83%	8.7%	2	2	20	0	0	0	3.8 -1.8
26 wk2	IND	86%	16.3%	7	5	25	0	0	1	—
26 wk1	DEN	77%	24.0%	6	3	18	0	0	0	—
25 wk17	DEN	79%	15.0%	3	0	0	1	1	0	—
25 wk16	TEN	84%	13.6%	3	2	41	1	0	0	—
25 wk15	LAC	67%	13.3%	4	2	35	0	0	0	—
25 wk14	HOU	77%	13.8%	4	3	55	0	0	0	—
25 wk13	DAL	88%	18.8%	6	4	61	2	13	0	—
25 wk12	IND	77%	18.6%	8	4	59	0	0	0	—
25 wk11	DEN	76%	11.6%	5	3	25	0	0	0	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 16 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	11 of 16	69%
5+ receptions	4 of 16	25%
7+ receptions	0 of 16	0%
50+ receiving yards	5 of 16	31%
75+ receiving yards	1 of 16	6%
100+ receiving yards	0 of 16	0%
Scored a touchdown	2 of 16	12%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	Carries/gm	Rush yds/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	3	3.3	21.0	5.0	0.0	0.0	1	82%	16.3%
2025	14	3.0	38.0	5.2	0.8	6.2	1	71%	16.1%
2024	20	3.9	46.2	6.0	1.1	5.6	12	67%	18.2%

3 seasons of usage, 2024–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Xavier Worthy sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the KC room — with sample size and t-statistic The whole Kansas City Chiefs roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about wide receivers

Are players better coming off a bye week?They are slightly worse Do defenses shut down the other team’s best receiver?Barely

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4