Over 16 games last season Noah Gray averaged 1.3 receptions and 11 yards on 52% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 1.5 receptions.
Week 4 projection
Receptions
1.5
0.2 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
18
Anytime TD
12%
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 3 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
How his role is trending
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
TD
We said
26 wk4
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
1.5 projected
26 wk3
MIA
63%
13.0%
3
3
39
0
1.1 +1.9
26 wk2
IND
50%
2.3%
1
0
0
0
—
26 wk1
DEN
55%
4.0%
1
1
5
0
—
25 wk18
LV
56%
16.7%
5
3
30
0
—
25 wk17
DEN
49%
5.0%
1
1
2
0
—
25 wk16
TEN
51%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk15
LAC
38%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk14
HOU
45%
10.3%
3
1
14
0
—
25 wk12
IND
32%
9.3%
4
3
25
0
—
25 wk11
DEN
51%
7.0%
3
2
9
0
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 18 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
3 of 18
17%
5+ receptions
0 of 18
0%
7+ receptions
0 of 18
0%
50+ receiving yards
0 of 18
0%
75+ receiving yards
0 of 18
0%
100+ receiving yards
0 of 18
0%
Scored a touchdown
0 of 18
0%
Career by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Season
Games
Catches/gm
Rec yds/gm
Targets/gm
TDs, season
Snap share
Target share
2026 so far
3
1.3
14.7
1.7
0
56%
6.5%
2025
16
1.3
11.1
2.3
0
52%
7.1%
2024
20
2.2
22.6
2.6
5
55%
8.1%
2023
21
1.7
17.7
2.5
2
53%
7.5%
2022
20
1.6
16.8
1.9
2
53%
5.3%
2021
18
0.5
2.8
0.8
1
25%
2.1%
6 seasons of usage, 2021–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016