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If Travis Kelce is out, who gets his targets?
The Kansas City Chiefs room absorbs +1.13 receptions, and Noah Gray takes the largest single share at +0.85. The work stays overwhelmingly inside the tight end room.
Where the work goes
Change in projected receptions for every other player in the offense. The bars are small on purpose — a vacated role is shared out, and any tool showing one replacement absorbing a whole target load is telling you something the data does not support.
Every player in the room
| Player | Catches now | If he sits | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rashee Rice WR · 80% snaps | 5.00 | 5.07 | +0.07 |
| Travis Kelce TE · 78% snaps | 4.40 | — | OUT |
| Xavier Worthy WR · 82% snaps | 3.80 | 3.87 | +0.07 |
| Kenneth Walker III RB · 74% snaps | 2.80 | 2.80 | +0.00 |
| Tyquan Thornton WR · 58% snaps | 2.00 | 2.07 | +0.07 |
| Noah Gray TE · 56% snaps | 1.50 | 2.35 | +0.85 |
| Emmett Johnson RB · 27% snaps | 1.10 | 1.10 | +0.00 |
| Jalen Royals WR · 17% snaps | 0.80 | 0.87 | +0.07 |
| Brashard Smith RB · 8% snaps | 0.60 | 0.60 | +0.00 |
What the data says happens
Measured across every regular-season game from 2018 onward, each beneficiary compared against his own trailing four-game form and net of what the same players do in weeks the room’s number one actually plays.
| Room | Receptions gained | n | t |
|---|---|---|---|
| Receivers | +0.107 | 2,160 | 2.29 |
| Tight ends | +0.492 | 1,024 | 9.57 |
| Backs | -0.045 | 1,259 | -0.92 |
The room total is predictable. Which player takes it is not. Every candidate predictor of who gains — pecking order, snap share, route depth, trailing targets — correlates at roughly r = 0.02. In any single week one player usually takes about 60% of what was vacated; it is simply not predictably the same one.
Travis Kelce’s full stats and usageSnap share, target share, game log and this week’s projection