Travis Kelce

Kansas City Chiefs · Tight endTE1

Over 17 games last season Travis Kelce averaged 4.5 receptions and 50 yards on 82% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 4.4 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

4.4

0.0 below his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Anytime TD

33%

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 1 and 8 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	4.4 projected
26 wk3	MIA	79%	8.7%	2	2	59	0	0	1	4.3 -2.3
26 wk2	IND	85%	25.6%	11	9	101	0	0	1	—
26 wk1	DEN	71%	20.0%	5	3	71	0	0	0	—
25 wk18	LV	80%	20.0%	6	3	12	0	0	0	—
25 wk17	DEN	98%	30.0%	6	5	36	0	0	0	—
25 wk16	TEN	78%	18.2%	4	1	6	0	0	0	—
25 wk15	LAC	98%	30.0%	9	7	70	0	0	0	—
25 wk14	HOU	91%	17.2%	5	1	8	0	0	0	—
25 wk13	DAL	91%	18.8%	6	5	45	0	0	1	—
25 wk12	IND	88%	14.0%	6	4	43	1	1	0	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 19 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	16 of 19	84%
5+ receptions	9 of 19	47%
7+ receptions	4 of 19	21%
50+ receiving yards	10 of 19	53%
75+ receiving yards	4 of 19	21%
100+ receiving yards	1 of 19	5%
Scored a touchdown	6 of 19	32%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	3	4.7	77.0	6.0	2	78%	18.1%
2025	17	4.5	50.1	6.4	5	82%	20.0%
2024	19	5.8	52.5	7.9	4	85%	23.2%
2023	19	6.6	70.5	8.3	8	78%	23.6%
2022	20	6.8	79.8	9.2	16	80%	25.8%
2021	19	6.1	74.9	8.5	13	82%	22.3%
2020	18	7.6	98.7	10.3	14	86%	26.0%
2019	19	6.1	75.6	8.3	10	91%	24.3%
2018	18	6.3	81.5	9.2	11	95%	26.4%
2017	16	5.4	69.0	7.9	9	89%	23.7%
2016	17	5.3	70.7	7.3	4	87%	21.7%

11 seasons of usage, 2016–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Travis Kelce sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the KC room — with sample size and t-statistic The whole Kansas City Chiefs roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about tight ends

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how much Is any defense actually “weak against tight ends”?Not a real trait

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4