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Kenneth Walker III

Kansas City Chiefs · Running backRB1

Over 20 games last season Kenneth Walker III averaged 2.0 receptions and 19 yards on 49% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 2.8 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions
2.8
0.8 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
32
Rush attempts
17.5
Rushing yards
95
Anytime TD
55%
red-zone role (+0.07)
His snap share has grown from last season. The projection is lifted to reflect the larger role.

What a realistic week looks like

10%019%122%218%313%48%55%63%78910111213Receptions
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 5 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

GameOppSnap shareTarget shareTgtRecRec ydsCarRush ydsTDWe said
26 wk4—————————2.8 projected
26 wk3MIA73%8.7%223187022.7 -0.7
26 wk2IND82%23.3%10661241170—
26 wk1DEN68%24.0%6318231732—
25 wk22NE65%11.1%4226271350—
25 wk21LA63%11.8%444919621—
25 wk20SF62%18.8%3329191163—
25 wk18SF42%15.4%443616970—
25 wk17CAR47%7.7%22615510—
25 wk16LA44%9.7%3364111001—
25 wk15IND42%3.0%1129170—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 22 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

OutcomeGames it happenedHow often
3+ receptions10 of 2245%
5+ receptions1 of 225%
7+ receptions0 of 220%
50+ receiving yards2 of 229%
75+ receiving yards0 of 220%
100+ receiving yards0 of 220%
Scored a touchdown7 of 2232%

Career by season

Kenneth Walker III: snap share and target share by season02040608010020222023202420252026Snap shareTarget shareSeasonshare of the team
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
SeasonGamesCatches/gmRec yds/gmTargets/gmCarries/gmRush yds/gmTDs, seasonSnap shareTarget share
2026 so far33.727.36.021.7120.0474%18.7%
2025202.019.32.414.367.0949%9.1%
2024114.227.24.813.952.1863%13.7%
2023151.917.32.514.660.3954%8.0%
2022161.810.52.215.269.61059%6.6%

5 seasons of usage, 2022–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Kenneth Walker III sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the KC room — with sample size and t-statisticThe whole Kansas City Chiefs roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about running backs

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how muchDo touchdowns repeat from year to year?Much less than receptions

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4