Over 7 games last season Jalen Royals averaged 0.3 receptions and 1 yards on 19% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 0.8 receptions.
Week 4 projection
Receptions
0.8
0.5 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
7
Anytime TD
23%
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 2 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
How his role is trending
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
TD
We said
26 wk4
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
0.8 projected
26 wk3
MIA
19%
4.3%
1
1
11
0
0.5 +0.5
26 wk2
IND
15%
4.7%
2
2
6
1
—
26 wk1
DEN
—
0.0%
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk18
LV
67%
10.0%
3
2
4
0
—
25 wk17
DEN
12%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk16
TEN
7%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk7
LV
20%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk6
DET
2%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk5
JAX
6%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk4
BAL
19%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 9 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
0 of 9
0%
5+ receptions
0 of 9
0%
7+ receptions
0 of 9
0%
50+ receiving yards
0 of 9
0%
75+ receiving yards
0 of 9
0%
100+ receiving yards
0 of 9
0%
Scored a touchdown
1 of 9
11%
Career by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Season
Games
Catches/gm
Rec yds/gm
Targets/gm
TDs, season
Snap share
Target share
2026 so far
3
1.0
5.7
1.0
1
17%
3.0%
2025
7
0.3
0.6
0.4
0
19%
1.4%
2 seasons of usage, 2025–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016