Brashard Smith

Kansas City Chiefs · Running backRB3

Over 17 games last season Brashard Smith averaged 1.5 receptions and 10 yards on 17% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 0.6 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

0.6

0.9 below his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Anytime TD

14%

His snap share has fallen from last season. The projection is pulled down to reflect the smaller role rather than last year’s.

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 2 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.6 projected
26 wk3	MIA	8%	4.3%	1	1	4	0	0	0	1.0 +0.0
26 wk2	IND	—	0.0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	—
25 wk18	LV	53%	13.3%	4	2	2	12	56	0	—
25 wk17	DEN	14%	20.0%	4	3	5	0	0	1	—
25 wk16	TEN	18%	4.5%	1	1	4	0	0	0	—
25 wk15	LAC	5%	0.0%	0	0	0	2	1	0	—
25 wk14	HOU	8%	0.0%	0	0	0	1	7	0	—
25 wk13	DAL	6%	0.0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	—
25 wk12	IND	19%	9.3%	4	3	31	1	5	0	—
25 wk11	DEN	17%	7.0%	3	2	8	0	0	0	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 18 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	6 of 18	33%
5+ receptions	1 of 18	6%
7+ receptions	0 of 18	0%
50+ receiving yards	0 of 18	0%
75+ receiving yards	0 of 18	0%
100+ receiving yards	0 of 18	0%
Scored a touchdown	1 of 18	6%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	Carries/gm	Rush yds/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	2	0.5	2.0	0.5	0.0	0.0	0	8%	2.2%
2025	17	1.5	10.1	2.1	2.6	8.9	1	17%	6.6%

2 seasons of usage, 2025–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

The whole Kansas City Chiefs roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about running backs

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how much Do touchdowns repeat from year to year?Much less than receptions

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4