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Tyquan Thornton

Kansas City Chiefs · Wide receiverWR3

Over 14 games last season Tyquan Thornton averaged 1.4 receptions and 31 yards on 39% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 2.0 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions
2.0
0.6 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
32
Anytime TD
9%
third-down role (+0.09)
His snap share has grown from last season. The projection is lifted to reflect the larger role.

What a realistic week looks like

19%026%122%215%39%45%5678910111213Receptions
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 4 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

GameOppSnap shareTarget shareTgtRecRec ydsTDWe said
26 wk4———————2.0 projected
26 wk3MIA46%8.7%222202.2 -0.2
26 wk2IND59%9.3%44860—
26 wk1DEN68%4.0%1000—
25 wk15LAC51%10.0%32470—
25 wk14HOU30%10.3%32190—
25 wk13DAL24%0.0%0000—
25 wk12IND26%2.3%1000—
25 wk11DEN23%4.7%21610—
25 wk9BUF23%3.4%1000—
25 wk8WAS7%0.0%0000—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 16 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

OutcomeGames it happenedHow often
3+ receptions3 of 1619%
5+ receptions1 of 166%
7+ receptions0 of 160%
50+ receiving yards5 of 1631%
75+ receiving yards2 of 1612%
100+ receiving yards0 of 160%
Scored a touchdown3 of 1619%

Career by season

Tyquan Thornton: snap share and target share by season02040608010020222023202420252026Snap shareTarget shareSeasonshare of the team
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
SeasonGamesCatches/gmRec yds/gmTargets/gmTDs, seasonSnap shareTarget share
2026 so far32.036.02.3058%7.3%
2025141.431.32.6339%7.7%
202460.77.81.3030%5.1%
202391.410.12.6042%8.4%
2022131.719.03.5365%11.5%

5 seasons of usage, 2022–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

The whole Kansas City Chiefs roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about wide receivers

Are players better coming off a bye week?They are slightly worseDo defenses shut down the other team’s best receiver?Barely

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4