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CeeDee Lamb

Dallas Cowboys · Wide receiverWR1

Over 14 games last season CeeDee Lamb averaged 5.4 receptions and 77 yards on 73% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 5.4 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions
5.4
0.1 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
62
Anytime TD
42%

What a realistic week looks like

04%19%213%315%415%513%610%78%85%93%102%111213Receptions
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 2 and 9 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

GameOppSnap shareTarget shareTgtRecRec ydsCarRush ydsTDWe said
26 wk4—————————5.4 projected
26 wk3BAL82%20.0%871120005.2 +1.8
26 wk2WAS75%29.0%98153002—
26 wk1NYG81%26.7%8544101—
25 wk18NYG45%4.3%114000—
25 wk17WAS87%27.8%10546000—
25 wk16LAC86%21.9%7651000—
25 wk15MIN86%28.6%106111000—
25 wk14DET46%17.0%86121000—
25 wk13KC81%24.3%97112001—
25 wk12PHI85%31.4%11475000—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 16 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

OutcomeGames it happenedHow often
3+ receptions14 of 1688%
5+ receptions13 of 1681%
7+ receptions6 of 1638%
50+ receiving yards12 of 1675%
75+ receiving yards9 of 1656%
100+ receiving yards7 of 1644%
Scored a touchdown5 of 1631%

Career by season

CeeDee Lamb: snap share and target share by season0204060801002020202120222023202420252026Snap shareTarget shareSeasonshare of the team
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
SeasonGamesCatches/gmRec yds/gmTargets/gmTDs, seasonSnap shareTarget share
2026 so far36.7103.08.3379%25.2%
2025145.476.98.4373%23.3%
2024156.779.610.1680%28.2%
2023188.0103.311.01484%29.3%
2022196.481.39.21087%29.0%
2021174.766.17.4677%19.6%
2020164.658.46.9663%18.4%

7 seasons of usage, 2020–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If CeeDee Lamb sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the DAL room — with sample size and t-statisticThe whole Dallas Cowboys roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about wide receivers

Are players better coming off a bye week?They are slightly worseDo defenses shut down the other team’s best receiver?Barely

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4