Ashton Jeanty

Las Vegas Raiders · Running backRB1

Over 17 games last season Ashton Jeanty averaged 3.2 receptions and 20 yards on 78% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 4.0 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

4.0

0.8 above his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Rush attempts

16.9

Rushing yards

Anytime TD

45%

red-zone role (+0.07)

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 1 and 7 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	4.0 projected
26 wk3	NO	84%	10.0%	3	3	37	19	56	0	3.4 -0.4
26 wk2	LAC	81%	24.1%	7	4	15	21	48	0	—
26 wk1	MIA	74%	20.7%	6	6	45	23	102	2	—
25 wk18	KC	97%	19.2%	5	3	7	26	87	0	—
25 wk17	NYG	81%	7.1%	2	2	13	16	60	0	—
25 wk16	HOU	93%	9.1%	2	1	60	24	128	2	—
25 wk15	PHI	71%	24.0%	6	4	7	9	35	0	—
25 wk14	DEN	70%	14.3%	4	2	8	10	30	0	—
25 wk13	LAC	96%	36.4%	8	6	30	15	31	0	—
25 wk12	CLE	81%	19.0%	8	8	58	17	50	1	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 19 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	11 of 19	58%
5+ receptions	6 of 19	32%
7+ receptions	1 of 19	5%
50+ receiving yards	2 of 19	11%
75+ receiving yards	0 of 19	0%
100+ receiving yards	0 of 19	0%
Scored a touchdown	8 of 19	42%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	Carries/gm	Rush yds/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	3	4.3	32.3	5.3	21.0	68.7	2	80%	18.3%
2025	17	3.2	20.4	4.3	15.6	57.4	10	78%	14.8%

2 seasons of usage, 2025–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Ashton Jeanty sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the LV room — with sample size and t-statistic The whole Las Vegas Raiders roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about running backs

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how much Do touchdowns repeat from year to year?Much less than receptions

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4