Adonai Mitchell

New York Jets · Wide receiverWR2

Over 16 games last season Adonai Mitchell averaged 2.1 receptions and 28 yards on 51% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 3.0 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

3.0

0.9 above his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Anytime TD

18%

Returning from a missed week. Players in their first game back come in about a third of a reception below recent form, so this projection is held down rather than reading his last line straight across.

His snap share has grown from last season. The projection is lifted to reflect the larger role.

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 1 and 6 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	3.0 projected
26 wk2	GB	82%	33.3%	12	6	63	0	0	0	—
26 wk1	TEN	69%	13.0%	3	3	60	0	0	0	—
25 wk18	BUF	52%	13.6%	3	0	0	0	0	0	—
25 wk17	NE	81%	28.1%	9	3	22	0	0	0	—
25 wk16	NO	86%	17.6%	6	3	43	0	0	0	—
25 wk15	JAX	79%	28.1%	9	6	58	1	-4	1	—
25 wk14	MIA	91%	18.8%	6	1	24	0	0	0	—
25 wk13	ATL	86%	38.7%	12	8	102	0	0	1	—
25 wk12	BAL	85%	25.9%	7	2	42	0	0	0	—
25 wk11	NE	49%	23.1%	6	1	10	0	0	0	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 18 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	7 of 18	39%
5+ receptions	3 of 18	17%
7+ receptions	1 of 18	6%
50+ receiving yards	5 of 18	28%
75+ receiving yards	2 of 18	11%
100+ receiving yards	1 of 18	6%
Scored a touchdown	2 of 18	11%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	2	4.5	61.5	7.5	0	75%	23.2%
2025	16	2.1	28.3	4.6	2	51%	15.3%
2024	17	1.4	18.4	3.2	0	36%	11.2%

3 seasons of usage, 2024–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Adonai Mitchell sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the NYJ room — with sample size and t-statistic The whole New York Jets roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about wide receivers

Are players better coming off a bye week?They are slightly worse Do defenses shut down the other team’s best receiver?Barely

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4