Stefon Diggs

Washington Commanders · Wide receiverWR1

Over 21 games last season Stefon Diggs averaged 4.7 receptions and 53 yards on 54% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 4.2 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

4.2

0.6 below his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Anytime TD

39%

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 1 and 7 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	4.2 projected
26 wk3	SEA	59%	23.3%	7	4	33	0	4.4 -0.4
26 wk2	DAL	51%	17.6%	6	5	47	2	—
26 wk1	PHI	63%	31.0%	9	4	55	1	—
25 wk22	SEA	63%	7.3%	3	3	37	0	—
25 wk21	DEN	47%	30.0%	6	5	17	0	—
25 wk20	HOU	55%	23.1%	6	4	40	1	—
25 wk19	LAC	62%	18.5%	5	2	16	0	—
25 wk18	MIA	46%	15.0%	3	3	43	0	—
25 wk17	NYJ	52%	24.0%	6	6	101	1	—
25 wk16	BAL	59%	23.8%	10	9	138	0	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 23 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	21 of 23	91%
5+ receptions	10 of 23	43%
7+ receptions	4 of 23	17%
50+ receiving yards	8 of 23	35%
75+ receiving yards	5 of 23	22%
100+ receiving yards	5 of 23	22%
Scored a touchdown	7 of 23	30%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	3	4.3	45.0	7.3	3	58%	24.0%
2025	21	4.7	53.5	5.8	5	54%	21.5%
2024	8	5.9	62.0	8.0	4	78%	24.4%
2023	19	6.2	66.1	9.3	8	82%	29.6%
2022	18	6.6	87.7	9.6	11	78%	27.2%
2021	19	5.7	68.0	9.2	10	81%	25.9%
2020	19	7.7	97.2	10.4	10	89%	29.6%
2019	17	3.9	70.9	6.0	7	80%	21.4%
2018	15	6.8	68.1	9.9	9	87%	26.2%
2017	16	4.9	66.0	7.3	9	81%	21.8%
2016	13	6.5	69.5	8.6	3	81%	23.7%

11 seasons of usage, 2016–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Stefon Diggs sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the WAS room — with sample size and t-statistic The whole Washington Commanders roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about wide receivers

Are players better coming off a bye week?They are slightly worse Do defenses shut down the other team’s best receiver?Barely

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4