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Washington Commanders
This is a committee. Stefon Diggs holds 24.0% of the targets, and the 14 tracked pass-catchers project for 24 receptions and 263 receiving yards in week 4.
Who owns the targets
Trailing target share, largest first. Target share reproduces at 0.92 between halves of a season, so this is a stable picture of the pecking order rather than a snapshot of one good game.
Receivers
| Player | Snap share | Target share | Proj. catches | Proj. rec yards | If he sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs WR1 | 58% | 24.0% | 4.2 | 54 | who benefits |
| Terry McLaurin WR2 | 77% | 23.4% | 3.7 | 58 | who benefits |
| Antonio Williams WR3 | 42% | 12.0% | 2.8 | 29 | — |
| Dyami Brown WR depth | 46% | 9.3% | 1.5 | 22 | — |
| Luke McCaffrey WR depth | 36% | 6.8% | 1.0 | 3 | — |
| Treylon Burks WR depth | 33% | 4.8% | 0.7 | 17 | — |
| Jaylin Lane WR depth | 16% | 2.3% | 0.7 | 8 | — |
Tight ends
| Player | Snap share | Target share | Proj. catches | Proj. rec yards | If he sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chig Okonkwo TE1 | 56% | 10.3% | 2.7 | 23 | who benefits |
| John Bates TE2 | 45% | 4.6% | 1.1 | 13 | who benefits |
| Colson Yankoff TE3 | 26% | 3.2% | 0.8 | 6 | — |
| Ben Sinnott TE depth | 48% | 2.1% | 0.9 | 8 | — |
Backs
| Player | Snap share | Target share | Proj. catches | Proj. rec yards | If he sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rachaad White RB2 | 45% | 9.3% | 2.4 | 16 | who benefits |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt RB1 | 48% | 3.2% | 1.1 | 6 | who benefits |
| Kaytron Allen RB3 | 9% | 0.0% | 0.2 | -1 | — |
The ground game
Projected for 26 carries and 117 rushing yards, with Jacory Croskey-Merritt taking 48% of the work. Carries per game is the second most repeatable thing a player has — 0.97 between halves of a season — so a backfield split holds up far better than a touchdown rate does.
| Player | Carries | Rush yds | Yds/carry | Anytime TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt RB | 12.6 | 57 | 4.56 | 21% |
| Rachaad White RB | 8.2 | 35 | 4.27 | 25% |
| Kaytron Allen RB | 5.2 | 25 | 4.71 | 13% |
Whose role has changed since last season
Snap share this season against last, for anyone who has moved at least six points. This is the input the model leans on hardest early in a year, because snap share is already reliable at 0.84 after two games while receptions manage 0.66.