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If John Bates is out, who gets his targets?
The Washington Commanders room absorbs +0.69 receptions, and Chig Okonkwo takes the largest single share at +0.23. The work stays overwhelmingly inside the tight end room.
Where the work goes
Change in projected receptions for every other player in the offense. The bars are small on purpose — a vacated role is shared out, and any tool showing one replacement absorbing a whole target load is telling you something the data does not support.
Every player in the room
| Player | Catches now | If he sits | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs WR · 58% snaps | 4.20 | 4.20 | +0.00 |
| Terry McLaurin WR · 77% snaps | 3.70 | 3.70 | +0.00 |
| Antonio Williams WR · 42% snaps | 2.80 | 2.80 | +0.00 |
| Chig Okonkwo TE · 56% snaps | 2.70 | 2.93 | +0.23 |
| Rachaad White RB · 45% snaps | 2.40 | 2.40 | +0.00 |
| Dyami Brown WR · 46% snaps | 1.50 | 1.50 | +0.00 |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt RB · 48% snaps | 1.10 | 1.10 | +0.00 |
| John Bates TE · 45% snaps | 1.10 | — | OUT |
| Luke McCaffrey WR · 0% snaps | 1.00 | 1.00 | +0.00 |
| Ben Sinnott TE · 48% snaps | 0.80 | 1.03 | +0.23 |
| Colson Yankoff TE · 26% snaps | 0.80 | 1.03 | +0.23 |
| Treylon Burks WR · 33% snaps | 0.70 | 0.70 | +0.00 |
| Jaylin Lane WR · 16% snaps | 0.70 | 0.70 | +0.00 |
What the data says happens
Measured across every regular-season game from 2018 onward, each beneficiary compared against his own trailing four-game form and net of what the same players do in weeks the room’s number one actually plays.
| Room | Receptions gained | n | t |
|---|---|---|---|
| Receivers | +0.107 | 2,160 | 2.29 |
| Tight ends | +0.492 | 1,024 | 9.57 |
| Backs | -0.045 | 1,259 | -0.92 |
The room total is predictable. Which player takes it is not. Every candidate predictor of who gains — pecking order, snap share, route depth, trailing targets — correlates at roughly r = 0.02. In any single week one player usually takes about 60% of what was vacated; it is simply not predictably the same one.
John Bates’s full stats and usageSnap share, target share, game log and this week’s projection