Over 15 games last season John Bates averaged 0.7 receptions and 7 yards on 51% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 1.1 receptions.
Week 4 projection
Receptions
1.1
0.3 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
13
Anytime TD
19%
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 3 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
How his role is trending
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
TD
We said
26 wk4
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
1.1 projected
26 wk3
SEA
54%
3.3%
1
1
9
0
1.5 -0.5
26 wk2
DAL
31%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
—
26 wk1
PHI
49%
10.3%
3
2
13
0
—
25 wk18
PHI
59%
10.5%
2
2
13
1
—
25 wk17
DAL
43%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk16
PHI
50%
5.0%
1
0
0
0
—
25 wk15
NYG
69%
6.2%
1
1
19
0
—
25 wk14
MIN
62%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk13
DEN
51%
4.4%
2
2
9
0
—
25 wk11
MIA
57%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 17 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
0 of 17
0%
5+ receptions
0 of 17
0%
7+ receptions
0 of 17
0%
50+ receiving yards
0 of 17
0%
75+ receiving yards
0 of 17
0%
100+ receiving yards
0 of 17
0%
Scored a touchdown
1 of 17
6%
Career by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Season
Games
Catches/gm
Rec yds/gm
Targets/gm
TDs, season
Snap share
Target share
2026 so far
3
1.0
7.3
1.3
0
45%
4.6%
2025
15
0.7
6.9
1.1
1
51%
4.6%
2024
20
0.6
5.8
0.9
0
44%
2.8%
2023
17
1.1
8.9
1.6
0
45%
4.7%
2022
16
0.9
6.8
1.4
1
45%
4.3%
2021
17
1.2
14.6
1.5
1
46%
5.2%
6 seasons of usage, 2021–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016