Jaylin Lane

Washington Commanders · Wide receiverWR depth

Over 15 games last season Jaylin Lane averaged 1.1 receptions and 15 yards on 36% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 0.7 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

0.7

0.3 below his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Anytime TD

10%

His snap share has fallen from last season. The projection is pulled down to reflect the smaller role rather than last year’s.

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 2 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.7 projected
26 wk3	SEA	7%	3.3%	1	1	21	0	0.9 +0.1
26 wk2	DAL	15%	0.0%	0	0	0	0	—
26 wk1	PHI	26%	3.4%	1	1	4	0	—
25 wk16	PHI	2%	0.0%	0	0	0	0	—
25 wk15	NYG	46%	6.2%	1	0	0	0	—
25 wk14	MIN	12%	0.0%	0	0	0	0	—
25 wk13	DEN	39%	2.2%	1	0	0	0	—
25 wk11	MIA	15%	3.4%	1	1	13	0	—
25 wk10	DET	28%	4.5%	1	1	41	0	—
25 wk9	SEA	63%	23.8%	5	3	29	0	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 17 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	2 of 17	12%
5+ receptions	0 of 17	0%
7+ receptions	0 of 17	0%
50+ receiving yards	1 of 17	6%
75+ receiving yards	0 of 17	0%
100+ receiving yards	0 of 17	0%
Scored a touchdown	0 of 17	0%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	3	0.7	8.3	0.7	0	16%	2.3%
2025	15	1.1	15.0	2.1	0	36%	8.3%

2 seasons of usage, 2025–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

The whole Washington Commanders roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about wide receivers

Are players better coming off a bye week?They are slightly worse Do defenses shut down the other team’s best receiver?Barely

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4