Slate Stats › NFL › Players

TB

Treylon Burks

Washington Commanders · Wide receiverWR depth

Over 8 games last season Treylon Burks averaged 1.2 receptions and 16 yards on 60% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 0.7 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions
0.7
0.5 below his 2025 average
Receiving yards
17
Anytime TD
11%
His snap share has fallen from last season. The projection is pulled down to reflect the smaller role rather than last year’s.

What a realistic week looks like

54%028%111%2345678910111213Receptions
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 2 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

GameOppSnap shareTarget shareTgtRecRec ydsTDWe said
26 wk4———————0.7 projected
26 wk3SEA36%6.7%221310.6 +1.4
26 wk2DAL30%2.9%1000—
25 wk18PHI68%21.1%42120—
25 wk17DAL91%9.5%21110—
25 wk16PHI83%25.0%52300—
25 wk15NYG46%12.5%2000—
25 wk14MIN37%5.0%1000—
25 wk13DEN66%8.9%4151—
25 wk10DET39%13.6%33580—
25 wk9SEA51%4.8%11140—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 9 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

OutcomeGames it happenedHow often
3+ receptions1 of 911%
5+ receptions0 of 90%
7+ receptions0 of 90%
50+ receiving yards1 of 911%
75+ receiving yards0 of 90%
100+ receiving yards0 of 90%
Scored a touchdown1 of 911%

Career by season

Treylon Burks: snap share and target share by season02040608010020222023202420252026Snap shareTarget shareSeasonshare of the team
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
SeasonGamesCatches/gmRec yds/gmTargets/gmTDs, seasonSnap shareTarget share
2026 so far21.06.51.5133%4.8%
202581.216.22.8160%12.5%
202450.86.81.6047%5.8%
2023111.520.12.7064%10.0%
2022113.040.44.9158%17.2%

5 seasons of usage, 2022–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

The whole Washington Commanders roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about wide receivers

Are players better coming off a bye week?They are slightly worseDo defenses shut down the other team’s best receiver?Barely

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4