Jacory Croskey-Merritt

Washington Commanders · Running backRB1

Over 17 games last season Jacory Croskey-Merritt averaged 0.5 receptions and 4 yards on 39% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 1.1 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

1.1

0.6 above his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Rush attempts

12.6

Rushing yards

Anytime TD

21%

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 3 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.1 projected
26 wk3	SEA	57%	3.3%	1	1	7	19	36	0	0.9 +0.1
26 wk2	DAL	37%	2.9%	1	1	5	12	43	0	—
26 wk1	PHI	49%	3.4%	1	1	-7	16	63	1	—
25 wk18	PHI	36%	0.0%	0	0	0	13	29	0	—
25 wk17	DAL	64%	0.0%	0	0	0	11	105	2	—
25 wk16	PHI	20%	0.0%	0	0	0	8	25	1	—
25 wk15	NYG	52%	0.0%	0	0	0	18	96	1	—
25 wk14	MIN	19%	0.0%	0	0	0	7	32	0	—
25 wk13	DEN	14%	0.0%	0	0	0	4	20	0	—
25 wk11	MIA	27%	3.4%	1	1	5	9	28	0	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 19 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	0 of 19	0%
5+ receptions	0 of 19	0%
7+ receptions	0 of 19	0%
50+ receiving yards	0 of 19	0%
75+ receiving yards	0 of 19	0%
100+ receiving yards	0 of 19	0%
Scored a touchdown	7 of 19	37%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	Carries/gm	Rush yds/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	3	1.0	1.7	1.0	15.7	47.3	1	48%	3.2%
2025	17	0.5	4.0	0.8	10.3	47.4	8	39%	3.0%

2 seasons of usage, 2025–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Jacory Croskey-Merritt sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the WAS room — with sample size and t-statistic The whole Washington Commanders roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about running backs

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how much Do touchdowns repeat from year to year?Much less than receptions

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4