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Ben Sinnott

Washington Commanders · Tight endTE depth

Over 16 games last season Ben Sinnott averaged 0.7 receptions and 7 yards on 36% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 0.9 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions
0.9
0.2 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
8
Anytime TD
8%
His snap share has grown from last season. The projection is lifted to reflect the larger role.

What a realistic week looks like

49%029%113%25%345678910111213Receptions
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 2 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

GameOppSnap shareTarget shareTgtRecRec ydsTDWe said
26 wk4———————0.9 projected
26 wk3SEA49%3.3%10001.6 -1.6
26 wk2DAL68%2.9%1160—
26 wk1PHI26%0.0%0000—
25 wk18PHI55%10.5%2230—
25 wk17DAL61%19.0%43290—
25 wk16PHI69%10.0%2150—
25 wk15NYG57%6.2%11360—
25 wk14MIN25%5.0%1180—
25 wk13DEN17%0.0%0000—
25 wk10DET39%4.5%1141—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 18 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

OutcomeGames it happenedHow often
3+ receptions1 of 186%
5+ receptions0 of 180%
7+ receptions0 of 180%
50+ receiving yards0 of 180%
75+ receiving yards0 of 180%
100+ receiving yards0 of 180%
Scored a touchdown1 of 186%

Career by season

Ben Sinnott: snap share and target share by season020406080100202420252026Snap shareTarget shareSeasonshare of the team
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
SeasonGamesCatches/gmRec yds/gmTargets/gmTDs, seasonSnap shareTarget share
2026 so far30.32.00.7048%2.1%
2025160.77.10.8136%3.8%
2024200.32.50.3123%1.1%

3 seasons of usage, 2024–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

The whole Washington Commanders roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about tight ends

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how muchIs any defense actually “weak against tight ends”?Not a real trait

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4