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Dyami Brown

Washington Commanders · Wide receiverWR depth

Over 14 games last season Dyami Brown averaged 1.4 receptions and 16 yards on 37% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 1.5 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions
1.5
0.1 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
22
Anytime TD
13%

What a realistic week looks like

29%030%120%211%35%45678910111213Receptions
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 3 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

GameOppSnap shareTarget shareTgtRecRec ydsCarRush ydsTDWe said
26 wk4—————————1.5 projected
26 wk3SEA30%3.3%1000002.1 -2.1
26 wk2DAL55%17.6%6421000—
26 wk1PHI53%6.9%200000—
25 wk18TEN13%3.2%118000—
25 wk16DEN9%0.0%000000—
25 wk15NYJ8%0.0%000140—
25 wk14IND9%0.0%000000—
25 wk12ARI6%0.0%000000—
25 wk11LAC27%4.5%100000—
25 wk10HOU37%4.3%100000—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 16 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

OutcomeGames it happenedHow often
3+ receptions4 of 1625%
5+ receptions1 of 166%
7+ receptions0 of 160%
50+ receiving yards3 of 1619%
75+ receiving yards0 of 160%
100+ receiving yards0 of 160%
Scored a touchdown1 of 166%

Career by season

Dyami Brown: snap share and target share by season020406080100202120222023202420252026Snap shareTarget shareSeasonshare of the team
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
SeasonGamesCatches/gmRec yds/gmTargets/gmTDs, seasonSnap shareTarget share
2026 so far31.37.03.0046%9.3%
2025141.416.22.6137%7.8%
2024192.328.33.1248%9.9%
2023170.79.91.4122%3.6%
2022150.39.50.9216%3.0%
2021150.811.01.7036%5.3%

6 seasons of usage, 2021–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

The whole Washington Commanders roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about wide receivers

Are players better coming off a bye week?They are slightly worseDo defenses shut down the other team’s best receiver?Barely

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4