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Rachaad White

Washington Commanders · Running backRB2

Over 17 games last season Rachaad White averaged 2.4 receptions and 13 yards on 51% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 2.4 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions
2.4
0.0 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
16
Rush attempts
8.2
Rushing yards
35
Anytime TD
25%
red-zone AND third-down role (+0.15)

What a realistic week looks like

14%023%122%217%311%46%53%678910111213Receptions
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 5 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

GameOppSnap shareTarget shareTgtRecRec ydsCarRush ydsTDWe said
26 wk4—————————2.4 projected
26 wk3SEA43%3.3%11683512.6 -1.6
26 wk2DAL52%17.6%66407430—
26 wk1PHI41%6.9%2257220—
25 wk18CAR33%9.1%22187230—
25 wk17MIA48%4.5%2272100—
25 wk16CAR39%8.0%22155450—
25 wk15ATL42%3.1%1161200—
25 wk14NO49%7.1%21211530—
25 wk13ARI38%11.5%3322270—
25 wk12LA60%3.2%1147380—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 19 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

OutcomeGames it happenedHow often
3+ receptions7 of 1937%
5+ receptions2 of 1911%
7+ receptions0 of 190%
50+ receiving yards0 of 190%
75+ receiving yards0 of 190%
100+ receiving yards0 of 190%
Scored a touchdown3 of 1916%

Career by season

Rachaad White: snap share and target share by season02040608010020222023202420252026Snap shareTarget shareSeasonshare of the team
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
SeasonGamesCatches/gmRec yds/gmTargets/gmCarries/gmRush yds/gmTDs, seasonSnap shareTarget share
2026 so far33.017.03.07.333.3145%9.3%
2025172.412.82.67.833.6451%8.3%
2024173.123.93.58.536.1955%10.7%
2023193.630.94.115.758.81078%12.3%
2022183.018.13.67.629.0339%7.8%

5 seasons of usage, 2022–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Rachaad White sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the WAS room — with sample size and t-statisticThe whole Washington Commanders roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about running backs

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how muchDo touchdowns repeat from year to year?Much less than receptions

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4