Terry McLaurin

Washington Commanders · Wide receiverWR2

Over 10 games last season Terry McLaurin averaged 3.8 receptions and 58 yards on 70% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 3.7 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

3.7

0.1 below his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Anytime TD

29%

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 1 and 7 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	3.7 projected
26 wk3	SEA	75%	30.0%	9	6	77	1	3.5 +2.5
26 wk2	DAL	70%	26.5%	9	2	50	0	—
26 wk1	PHI	87%	13.8%	4	2	14	0	—
25 wk18	PHI	70%	21.1%	4	4	57	0	—
25 wk17	DAL	86%	33.3%	7	5	63	0	—
25 wk16	PHI	83%	20.0%	4	3	53	0	—
25 wk15	NYG	75%	25.0%	4	3	69	1	—
25 wk14	MIN	62%	30.0%	6	3	41	0	—
25 wk13	DEN	51%	31.1%	14	7	96	1	—
25 wk8	KC	47%	13.3%	4	3	54	1	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 12 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	9 of 12	75%
5+ receptions	3 of 12	25%
7+ receptions	1 of 12	8%
50+ receiving yards	8 of 12	67%
75+ receiving yards	1 of 12	8%
100+ receiving yards	0 of 12	0%
Scored a touchdown	3 of 12	25%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	3	3.3	47.0	7.3	1	77%	23.4%
2025	10	3.8	58.2	6.0	3	70%	23.2%
2024	20	4.8	66.2	7.0	16	81%	23.1%
2023	17	4.6	58.9	7.8	4	85%	22.8%
2022	17	4.5	70.1	7.1	5	89%	23.8%
2021	17	4.5	61.9	7.6	5	90%	24.6%
2020	16	5.8	74.6	8.8	4	93%	26.3%
2019	14	4.1	65.6	6.6	7	93%	23.4%

8 seasons of usage, 2019–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Terry McLaurin sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the WAS room — with sample size and t-statistic The whole Washington Commanders roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about wide receivers

Are players better coming off a bye week?They are slightly worse Do defenses shut down the other team’s best receiver?Barely

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4