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If Stefon Diggs is out, who gets his targets?

The Washington Commanders room absorbs +4.08 receptions, and Treylon Burks takes the largest single share at +0.98. The work stays overwhelmingly inside the wide receiver room.

Where the work goes

Change in projected receptions for every other player in the offense. The bars are small on purpose — a vacated role is shared out, and any tool showing one replacement absorbing a whole target load is telling you something the data does not support.

Receptions gained if Stefon Diggs sitsTreylon Burks+1.0WR 33% snapsTerry McLaurin+0.6WR 77% snapsAntonio Williams+0.6WR 42% snapsDyami Brown+0.6WR 46% snapsLuke McCaffrey+0.3WR 0% snapsJaylin Lane+0.3WR 16% snapsBen Sinnott+0.2TE 48% snapsChig Okonkwo+0.1TE 56% snapsJohn Bates+0.1TE 45% snapsColson Yankoff+0.1TE 26% snapsRachaad White+0.1RB 45% snapsJacory Croskey-Merritt+0.1RB 48% snapschange in projected receptions

Every player in the room

PlayerCatches nowIf he sitsChange
Stefon Diggs WR · 58% snaps4.20—OUT
Terry McLaurin WR · 77% snaps3.604.16+0.56
Antonio Williams WR · 42% snaps2.803.36+0.56
Chig Okonkwo TE · 56% snaps2.702.85+0.15
Rachaad White RB · 45% snaps2.402.53+0.13
Dyami Brown WR · 46% snaps1.401.96+0.56
Jacory Croskey-Merritt RB · 48% snaps1.101.22+0.12
John Bates TE · 45% snaps1.101.25+0.15
Luke McCaffrey WR · 0% snaps1.001.28+0.28
Ben Sinnott TE · 48% snaps0.901.06+0.16
Colson Yankoff TE · 26% snaps0.800.95+0.15
Jaylin Lane WR · 16% snaps0.700.98+0.28
Treylon Burks WR · 33% snaps0.701.68+0.98

What the data says happens

Measured across every regular-season game from 2018 onward, each beneficiary compared against his own trailing four-game form and net of what the same players do in weeks the room’s number one actually plays.

RoomReceptions gainednt
Receivers+0.5841,53711.16
Tight ends+0.1751,0803.33
Backs+0.1131,0112.00

The room total is predictable. Which player takes it is not. Every candidate predictor of who gains — pecking order, snap share, route depth, trailing targets — correlates at roughly r = 0.02. In any single week one player usually takes about 60% of what was vacated; it is simply not predictably the same one.

Stefon Diggs’s full stats and usageSnap share, target share, game log and this week’s projection

Cascade effects 2018–2026, paired within player, net of control · projections as-of-week with no lookahead · 2026 week 4