Chig Okonkwo

Washington Commanders · Tight endTE1

Over 17 games last season Chig Okonkwo averaged 3.3 receptions and 33 yards on 64% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 2.7 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

2.7

0.6 below his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Returning from a missed week. Players in their first game back come in about a third of a reception below recent form, so this projection is held down rather than reading his last line straight across.

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 5 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	2.7 projected
26 wk1	PHI	56%	10.3%	3	2	16	0	—
25 wk18	JAX	80%	15.2%	5	2	2	0	—
25 wk17	NO	51%	20.0%	7	3	55	1	—
25 wk16	KC	45%	29.6%	8	6	44	1	—
25 wk15	SF	57%	22.2%	6	4	33	0	—
25 wk14	CLE	48%	8.0%	2	2	20	0	—
25 wk13	JAX	61%	14.3%	5	4	29	0	—
25 wk12	SEA	63%	10.5%	4	3	40	0	—
25 wk11	HOU	68%	8.3%	3	3	56	0	—
25 wk9	LAC	68%	9.5%	2	2	10	0	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 18 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	12 of 18	67%
5+ receptions	3 of 18	17%
7+ receptions	0 of 18	0%
50+ receiving yards	4 of 18	22%
75+ receiving yards	0 of 18	0%
100+ receiving yards	0 of 18	0%
Scored a touchdown	2 of 18	11%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	1	2.0	16.0	3.0	0	56%	10.3%
2025	17	3.3	32.9	4.6	2	64%	15.0%
2024	17	3.1	28.2	4.1	2	61%	13.3%
2023	17	3.2	31.1	4.5	1	65%	16.2%
2022	17	1.9	26.5	2.7	3	36%	11.4%

5 seasons of usage, 2022–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Chig Okonkwo sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the WAS room — with sample size and t-statistic The whole Washington Commanders roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about tight ends

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how much Is any defense actually “weak against tight ends”?Not a real trait

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4