Over 17 games last season Tyler Warren averaged 4.5 receptions and 48 yards on 84% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 4.8 receptions.
Week 4 projection
Receptions
4.8
0.3 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
58
Anytime TD
40%
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 2 and 8 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
How his role is trending
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
Car
Rush yds
TD
We said
26 wk4
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
4.8 projected
26 wk3
HOU
94%
28.6%
10
9
55
1
2
0
4.4 +4.6
26 wk2
KC
89%
23.3%
7
6
21
1
3
1
—
26 wk1
BAL
93%
17.2%
5
3
13
0
0
1
—
25 wk18
HOU
82%
24.2%
8
5
26
0
0
0
—
25 wk17
JAX
86%
17.2%
5
5
43
0
0
0
—
25 wk16
SF
88%
25.0%
9
3
30
0
0
0
—
25 wk15
SEA
82%
23.1%
6
3
19
0
0
0
—
25 wk14
JAX
93%
16.7%
6
2
15
1
2
0
—
25 wk13
HOU
87%
16.0%
4
3
22
1
0
1
—
25 wk12
KC
86%
22.6%
7
5
45
0
0
0
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 19 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
18 of 19
95%
5+ receptions
9 of 19
47%
7+ receptions
2 of 19
11%
50+ receiving yards
7 of 19
37%
75+ receiving yards
3 of 19
16%
100+ receiving yards
0 of 19
0%
Scored a touchdown
7 of 19
37%
Career by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Season
Games
Catches/gm
Rec yds/gm
Targets/gm
TDs, season
Snap share
Target share
2026 so far
3
6.0
29.7
7.3
2
92%
23.0%
2025
17
4.5
48.1
6.6
5
84%
21.5%
2 seasons of usage, 2025–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016