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Indianapolis Colts
This is a committee. Josh Downs holds 25.1% of the targets, and the 13 tracked pass-catchers project for 20 receptions and 225 receiving yards in week 4.
Who owns the targets
Trailing target share, largest first. Target share reproduces at 0.92 between halves of a season, so this is a stable picture of the pecking order rather than a snapshot of one good game.
Receivers
| Player | Snap share | Target share | Proj. catches | Proj. rec yards | If he sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Downs WR1 | 80% | 25.1% | 4.0 | 54 | who benefits |
| Keenan Allen WR2 | 64% | 21.0% | 4.1 | 48 | who benefits |
| Alec Pierce WR3 | 42% | 12.0% | 0.0 | — | — |
| Laquon Treadwell WR depth | 63% | 5.4% | 1.5 | 20 | — |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine WR depth | 1% | 4.5% | 0.2 | 0 | — |
| Ashton Dulin WR depth | 19% | 3.4% | 0.1 | 7 | — |
| Anthony Gould WR depth | 16% | 0.5% | 0.3 | 0 | — |
| Deion Burks WR depth | 10% | 0.0% | 0.6 | 1 | — |
Tight ends
| Player | Snap share | Target share | Proj. catches | Proj. rec yards | If he sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Warren TE1 | 92% | 23.0% | 4.8 | 58 | who benefits |
| Andrew Ogletree TE2 | 23% | 2.3% | 0.3 | 5 | — |
| Mo Alie-Cox TE3 | 34% | 1.0% | 0.7 | 5 | — |
Backs
| Player | Snap share | Target share | Proj. catches | Proj. rec yards | If he sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor RB1 | 89% | 11.9% | 3.1 | 27 | who benefits |
| Seth McGowan RB2 | 11% | 1.1% | 0.7 | -0 | — |
The ground game
Projected for 19 carries and 84 rushing yards, with Jonathan Taylor taking 100% of the work. Carries per game is the second most repeatable thing a player has — 0.97 between halves of a season — so a backfield split holds up far better than a touchdown rate does.
| Player | Carries | Rush yds | Yds/carry | Anytime TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor RB | 19.3 | 84 | 4.38 | 54% |
Whose role has changed since last season
Snap share this season against last, for anyone who has moved at least six points. This is the input the model leans on hardest early in a year, because snap share is already reliable at 0.84 after two games while receptions manage 0.66.