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If Josh Downs is out, who gets his targets?
The Indianapolis Colts room absorbs +2.06 receptions, and Keenan Allen takes the largest single share at +0.51. The work stays overwhelmingly inside the wide receiver room.
Where the work goes
Change in projected receptions for every other player in the offense. The bars are small on purpose — a vacated role is shared out, and any tool showing one replacement absorbing a whole target load is telling you something the data does not support.
Every player in the room
| Player | Catches now | If he sits | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Warren TE · 92% snaps | 4.80 | 4.95 | +0.15 |
| Josh Downs WR · 80% snaps | 4.00 | — | OUT |
| Keenan Allen WR · 64% snaps | 4.00 | 4.51 | +0.51 |
| Jonathan Taylor RB · 89% snaps | 3.10 | 3.23 | +0.13 |
| Alec Pierce WR · 42% snaps | 2.30 | 2.77 | +0.47 |
| Laquon Treadwell WR · 63% snaps | 1.50 | 1.73 | +0.23 |
| Mo Alie-Cox TE · 34% snaps | 0.70 | 0.85 | +0.15 |
| Seth McGowan RB · 11% snaps | 0.70 | 0.83 | +0.13 |
| Deion Burks WR · 10% snaps | 0.60 | 0.89 | +0.29 |
What the data says happens
Measured across every regular-season game from 2018 onward, each beneficiary compared against his own trailing four-game form and net of what the same players do in weeks the room’s number one actually plays.
| Room | Receptions gained | n | t |
|---|---|---|---|
| Receivers | +0.584 | 1,537 | 11.16 |
| Tight ends | +0.175 | 1,080 | 3.33 |
| Backs | +0.113 | 1,011 | 2.00 |
The room total is predictable. Which player takes it is not. Every candidate predictor of who gains — pecking order, snap share, route depth, trailing targets — correlates at roughly r = 0.02. In any single week one player usually takes about 60% of what was vacated; it is simply not predictably the same one.
Josh Downs’s full stats and usageSnap share, target share, game log and this week’s projection