Josh Downs

Indianapolis Colts · Wide receiverWR1

Over 16 games last season Josh Downs averaged 3.6 receptions and 35 yards on 59% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 4.0 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

4.0

0.4 above his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Anytime TD

25%

red-zone AND third-down role (+0.11)

His snap share has grown from last season. The projection is lifted to reflect the larger role.

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 1 and 7 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	4.0 projected
26 wk3	HOU	68%	31.4%	11	5	77	0	0	0	4.1 +0.9
26 wk2	KC	83%	30.0%	9	7	72	0	0	0	—
26 wk1	BAL	89%	13.8%	4	2	37	0	0	0	—
25 wk18	HOU	63%	12.1%	4	4	61	1	-5	0	—
25 wk17	JAX	61%	17.2%	5	2	34	0	0	0	—
25 wk16	SF	78%	25.0%	9	5	65	1	3	0	—
25 wk15	SEA	72%	19.2%	5	3	13	0	0	1	—
25 wk14	JAX	66%	13.9%	5	4	23	0	0	0	—
25 wk13	HOU	57%	24.0%	6	2	44	0	0	0	—
25 wk12	KC	43%	19.4%	6	2	10	0	0	0	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 18 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	11 of 18	61%
5+ receptions	6 of 18	33%
7+ receptions	1 of 18	6%
50+ receiving yards	6 of 18	33%
75+ receiving yards	0 of 18	0%
100+ receiving yards	0 of 18	0%
Scored a touchdown	4 of 18	22%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	3	4.7	62.0	8.0	0	80%	25.1%
2025	16	3.6	35.4	5.5	4	59%	17.5%
2024	14	5.1	57.4	7.6	5	64%	26.1%
2023	17	4.0	45.4	5.8	2	68%	17.3%

4 seasons of usage, 2023–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Josh Downs sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the IND room — with sample size and t-statistic The whole Indianapolis Colts roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about wide receivers

Are players better coming off a bye week?They are slightly worse Do defenses shut down the other team’s best receiver?Barely

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4