Mo Alie-Cox

Indianapolis Colts · Tight endTE3

Over 17 games last season Mo Alie-Cox averaged 0.8 receptions and 7 yards on 39% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 0.7 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

0.7

0.1 below his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Anytime TD

13%

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 2 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.7 projected
26 wk3	HOU	38%	2.9%	1	1	16	0	0.6 +0.4
26 wk2	KC	38%	0.0%	0	0	0	0	—
26 wk1	BAL	26%	0.0%	0	0	0	0	—
25 wk18	HOU	42%	12.1%	4	3	22	0	—
25 wk17	JAX	42%	10.3%	3	3	20	1	—
25 wk16	SF	22%	5.6%	2	2	16	0	—
25 wk15	SEA	23%	0.0%	0	0	0	0	—
25 wk14	JAX	27%	5.6%	2	0	0	0	—
25 wk13	HOU	41%	0.0%	0	0	0	0	—
25 wk12	KC	49%	3.2%	1	1	9	0	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 19 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	2 of 19	11%
5+ receptions	0 of 19	0%
7+ receptions	0 of 19	0%
50+ receiving yards	0 of 19	0%
75+ receiving yards	0 of 19	0%
100+ receiving yards	0 of 19	0%
Scored a touchdown	1 of 19	5%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	3	0.3	5.3	0.3	0	34%	1.0%
2025	17	0.8	6.9	1.2	1	39%	3.7%
2024	17	0.7	8.6	1.3	1	44%	5.0%
2023	17	0.8	9.5	1.3	3	39%	4.8%
2022	17	1.1	11.1	1.6	3	51%	5.1%
2021	17	1.4	18.6	2.6	4	55%	9.3%
2020	16	2.2	26.6	2.7	2	48%	8.2%
2019	16	0.5	5.8	0.7	0	33%	2.4%
2018	11	0.6	12.1	1.3	2	39%	3.7%

9 seasons of usage, 2018–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

The whole Indianapolis Colts roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about tight ends

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how much Is any defense actually “weak against tight ends”?Not a real trait

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4