Andrew Ogletree

Indianapolis Colts · Tight endTE2

Over 15 games last season Andrew Ogletree averaged 0.3 receptions and 2 yards on 24% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 0.3 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

0.3

0.1 above his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Anytime TD

11%

His snap share has grown from last season. The projection is lifted to reflect the larger role.

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 1 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.3 projected
26 wk3	HOU	30%	0.0%	0	0	0	0	0.3 -0.3
26 wk2	KC	29%	3.3%	1	0	0	0	—
26 wk1	BAL	11%	3.4%	1	0	0	0	—
25 wk16	SF	8%	5.6%	2	1	11	0	—
25 wk15	SEA	15%	0.0%	0	0	0	0	—
25 wk14	JAX	19%	0.0%	0	0	0	0	—
25 wk13	HOU	22%	4.0%	1	1	8	0	—
25 wk12	KC	22%	6.5%	2	2	8	1	—
25 wk10	ATL	25%	0.0%	0	0	0	0	—
25 wk9	PIT	18%	0.0%	0	0	0	0	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 17 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	0 of 17	0%
5+ receptions	0 of 17	0%
7+ receptions	0 of 17	0%
50+ receiving yards	0 of 17	0%
75+ receiving yards	0 of 17	0%
100+ receiving yards	0 of 17	0%
Scored a touchdown	1 of 17	6%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	3	0.0	0.0	0.7	0	23%	2.3%
2025	15	0.3	1.8	0.4	1	24%	1.3%
2024	17	0.5	6.4	0.8	1	40%	3.1%
2023	12	0.8	12.2	1.8	2	40%	5.7%

4 seasons of usage, 2023–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

The whole Indianapolis Colts roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about tight ends

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how much Is any defense actually “weak against tight ends”?Not a real trait

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4