Jonathan Taylor

Indianapolis Colts · Running backRB1

Over 17 games last season Jonathan Taylor averaged 2.7 receptions and 22 yards on 83% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 3.1 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

3.1

0.4 above his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Rush attempts

19.3

Rushing yards

Anytime TD

54%

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 1 and 6 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	3.1 projected
26 wk3	HOU	85%	8.6%	3	2	4	23	68	0	3.3 -1.3
26 wk2	KC	94%	13.3%	4	4	40	24	92	2	—
26 wk1	BAL	89%	13.8%	4	3	23	19	98	2	—
25 wk18	HOU	52%	6.1%	2	2	13	14	26	0	—
25 wk17	JAX	89%	20.7%	6	3	14	21	70	1	—
25 wk16	SF	88%	8.3%	3	3	33	16	46	1	—
25 wk15	SEA	85%	15.4%	4	3	14	25	87	0	—
25 wk14	JAX	74%	0.0%	0	0	0	21	74	1	—
25 wk13	HOU	98%	20.0%	5	3	36	21	85	0	—
25 wk12	KC	90%	9.7%	3	2	8	16	58	0	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 19 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	13 of 19	68%
5+ receptions	1 of 19	5%
7+ receptions	0 of 19	0%
50+ receiving yards	1 of 19	5%
75+ receiving yards	0 of 19	0%
100+ receiving yards	0 of 19	0%
Scored a touchdown	12 of 19	63%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	Carries/gm	Rush yds/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	3	3.0	22.3	3.7	22.0	86.0	4	89%	11.9%
2025	17	2.7	22.2	3.2	19.0	93.2	20	83%	11.0%
2024	14	1.3	9.7	2.2	21.6	102.2	12	80%	7.4%
2023	10	1.9	15.3	2.3	16.9	74.1	8	59%	8.0%
2022	11	2.5	13.0	3.6	17.5	78.3	4	71%	10.1%
2021	17	2.4	21.2	3.0	19.5	106.5	20	69%	9.7%
2020	16	2.4	19.1	2.7	15.8	77.9	13	51%	7.9%

7 seasons of usage, 2020–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Jonathan Taylor sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the IND room — with sample size and t-statistic The whole Indianapolis Colts roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about running backs

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how much Do touchdowns repeat from year to year?Much less than receptions

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4