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Laquon Treadwell

Indianapolis Colts · Wide receiverWR depth

Over 9 games last season Laquon Treadwell averaged 0.0 receptions and 0 yards on 8% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 1.5 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions
1.5
Receiving yards
20
Anytime TD
9%
His snap share has grown from last season. The projection is lifted to reflect the larger role.

What a realistic week looks like

29%030%120%211%35%45678910111213Receptions
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 3 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

GameOppSnap shareTarget shareTgtRecRec ydsTDWe said
26 wk4———————1.5 projected
26 wk3HOU79%2.9%112001.1 -0.1
26 wk2KC74%10.0%33610—
26 wk1BAL35%3.4%1000—
25 wk18HOU8%0.0%0000—
25 wk17JAX2%0.0%0000—
25 wk16SF7%0.0%0000—
25 wk15SEA7%0.0%0000—
25 wk14JAX20%0.0%0000—
25 wk13HOU13%0.0%0000—
25 wk12KC2%0.0%0000—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 11 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

OutcomeGames it happenedHow often
3+ receptions1 of 119%
5+ receptions0 of 110%
7+ receptions0 of 110%
50+ receiving yards1 of 119%
75+ receiving yards0 of 110%
100+ receiving yards0 of 110%
Scored a touchdown0 of 110%

Career by season

Laquon Treadwell: snap share and target share by season02040608010020162017201820192020202120222023202420252026Snap shareTarget shareSeasonshare of the team
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
SeasonGamesCatches/gmRec yds/gmTargets/gmTDs, seasonSnap shareTarget share
2026 so far31.327.01.7063%5.4%
202590.00.00.008%0.0%
202410.00.00.0011%0.0%
202340.24.00.8038%2.9%
202270.96.01.4028%4.0%
2021122.836.24.2165%13.0%
202041.512.21.8222%4.6%
2019140.613.11.1120%3.8%
2018152.320.13.5155%9.3%
2017181.111.12.0043%5.8%
201680.11.90.4018%0.8%

11 seasons of usage, 2016–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

The whole Indianapolis Colts roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about wide receivers

Are players better coming off a bye week?They are slightly worseDo defenses shut down the other team’s best receiver?Barely

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4