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Ashton Dulin

Indianapolis Colts · Wide receiverWR depth

Over 12 games last season Ashton Dulin averaged 0.4 receptions and 9 yards on 21% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 0.1 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions
0.1
0.3 below his 2025 average
Receiving yards
7
Returning from a missed week. Players in their first game back come in about a third of a reception below recent form, so this projection is held down rather than reading his last line straight across.

What a realistic week looks like

88%012345678910111213Receptions
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 1 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

GameOppSnap shareTarget shareTgtRecRec ydsCarRush ydsTDWe said
26 wk4—————————0.1 projected
26 wk1BAL19%3.4%100000—
25 wk18HOU37%6.1%200000—
25 wk17JAX12%0.0%000000—
25 wk12KC18%3.2%1148000—
25 wk10ATL19%0.0%0001220—
25 wk9PIT8%0.0%000000—
25 wk8TEN25%3.6%11-8000—
25 wk6ARI2%0.0%000000—
25 wk5LV71%16.1%5255000—
25 wk4LA20%3.1%1111170—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 13 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

OutcomeGames it happenedHow often
3+ receptions0 of 130%
5+ receptions0 of 130%
7+ receptions0 of 130%
50+ receiving yards1 of 138%
75+ receiving yards0 of 130%
100+ receiving yards0 of 130%
Scored a touchdown0 of 130%

Career by season

Ashton Dulin: snap share and target share by season0204060801002019202020212022202420252026Snap shareTarget shareSeasonshare of the team
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
SeasonGamesCatches/gmRec yds/gmTargets/gmTDs, seasonSnap shareTarget share
2026 so far10.00.01.0019%3.4%
2025120.48.80.8021%2.7%
2024150.14.50.5120%2.1%
2022121.217.21.8128%5.2%
2021170.810.21.3230%4.2%
2020140.23.80.4014%1.5%
2019110.21.50.2013%0.5%

7 seasons of usage, 2019–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

The whole Indianapolis Colts roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about wide receivers

Are players better coming off a bye week?They are slightly worseDo defenses shut down the other team’s best receiver?Barely

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4