Keenan Allen

Indianapolis Colts · Wide receiverWR2

Over 18 games last season Keenan Allen averaged 4.7 receptions and 45 yards on 56% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 4.1 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

4.1

0.6 below his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Anytime TD

29%

third-down role (+0.06)

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 1 and 7 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	4.1 projected
26 wk3	HOU	73%	25.7%	9	6	63	1	4.0 +2.0
26 wk2	KC	51%	16.7%	5	1	5	0	—
26 wk1	BAL	67%	20.7%	6	6	32	0	—
25 wk19	NE	60%	26.7%	8	3	25	0	—
25 wk18	DEN	54%	34.2%	13	7	36	0	—
25 wk17	HOU	57%	9.7%	3	1	17	0	—
25 wk16	DAL	47%	17.9%	5	5	44	0	—
25 wk15	KC	42%	26.9%	7	5	36	0	—
25 wk14	PHI	57%	13.0%	3	3	22	0	—
25 wk13	LV	60%	23.8%	5	4	30	0	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 20 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	16 of 20	80%
5+ receptions	10 of 20	50%
7+ receptions	4 of 20	20%
50+ receiving yards	6 of 20	30%
75+ receiving yards	1 of 20	5%
100+ receiving yards	1 of 20	5%
Scored a touchdown	4 of 20	20%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	3	4.3	33.3	6.7	1	64%	21.0%
2025	18	4.7	44.6	7.2	4	56%	22.3%
2024	15	4.7	49.6	8.1	7	87%	26.5%
2023	13	8.3	95.6	11.5	7	89%	31.4%
2022	11	6.5	73.9	9.3	4	76%	24.0%
2021	16	6.6	71.1	9.8	6	87%	25.7%
2020	14	7.1	70.9	10.5	8	83%	26.7%
2019	16	6.5	74.9	9.3	6	88%	25.9%
2018	18	5.7	72.7	8.2	7	82%	26.3%
2017	16	6.4	87.1	9.9	6	84%	27.7%
2016	1	6.0	63.0	7.0	0	37%	19.4%

11 seasons of usage, 2016–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Keenan Allen sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the IND room — with sample size and t-statistic The whole Indianapolis Colts roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about wide receivers

Are players better coming off a bye week?They are slightly worse Do defenses shut down the other team’s best receiver?Barely

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4