Over 9 games last season Sam LaPorta averaged 4.4 receptions and 54 yards on 91% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 4.5 receptions.
Week 4 projection
Receptions
4.5
0.0 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
54
Anytime TD
35%
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 1 and 8 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
How his role is trending
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
TD
We said
26 wk4
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
4.5 projected
26 wk3
NYJ
92%
12.9%
4
3
44
0
4.7 -1.7
26 wk2
BUF
98%
18.4%
7
6
52
1
—
26 wk1
NO
81%
20.5%
8
5
48
0
—
25 wk10
WAS
76%
15.6%
5
5
53
0
—
25 wk9
MIN
100%
22.2%
8
6
97
1
—
25 wk7
TB
97%
10.7%
3
3
15
0
—
25 wk6
KC
96%
22.2%
6
5
55
1
—
25 wk5
CIN
94%
26.1%
6
5
92
1
—
25 wk4
CLE
93%
16.0%
4
3
39
0
—
25 wk3
BAL
84%
15.4%
4
4
33
0
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 11 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
11 of 11
100%
5+ receptions
7 of 11
64%
7+ receptions
0 of 11
0%
50+ receiving yards
6 of 11
55%
75+ receiving yards
3 of 11
27%
100+ receiving yards
0 of 11
0%
Scored a touchdown
4 of 11
36%
Career by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Season
Games
Catches/gm
Rec yds/gm
Targets/gm
TDs, season
Snap share
Target share
2026 so far
3
4.7
48.0
6.3
1
90%
17.3%
2025
9
4.4
54.3
5.4
3
91%
18.5%
2024
17
3.9
45.7
5.3
8
86%
17.5%
2023
20
5.3
53.2
7.3
11
83%
21.7%
4 seasons of usage, 2023–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016