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Detroit Lions
This is a top-heavy committee. Amon-Ra St. Brown holds 32.0% of the targets, and the 12 tracked pass-catchers project for 25 receptions and 284 receiving yards in week 4.
Who owns the targets
Trailing target share, largest first. Target share reproduces at 0.92 between halves of a season, so this is a stable picture of the pecking order rather than a snapshot of one good game.
Receivers
| Player | Snap share | Target share | Proj. catches | Proj. rec yards | If he sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown WR1 | 86% | 32.0% | 6.8 | 84 | who benefits |
| Jameson Williams WR2 | 88% | 15.5% | 3.9 | 57 | who benefits |
| Isaac TeSlaa WR3 | 64% | 8.5% | 1.9 | 24 | — |
| Tay Martin WR depth | 3% | 2.8% | 0.2 | 1 | — |
| Tom Kennedy WR depth | 19% | 2.5% | 0.5 | 0 | — |
| Jackson Meeks WR depth | 8% | 1.6% | 0.6 | 5 | — |
Tight ends
| Player | Snap share | Target share | Proj. catches | Proj. rec yards | If he sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam LaPorta TE1 | 90% | 17.3% | 4.5 | 54 | who benefits |
| Brock Wright TE2 | 45% | 3.0% | 1.1 | 10 | who benefits |
| Tyler Conklin TE3 | 10% | 2.8% | 0.1 | -0 | — |
Backs
| Player | Snap share | Target share | Proj. catches | Proj. rec yards | If he sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs RB1 | 75% | 19.9% | 4.7 | 43 | who benefits |
| Sione Vaki RB2 | 26% | 2.8% | 0.6 | 7 | — |
| Jacob Saylors RB3 | 3% | 0.0% | 0.1 | -1 | — |
The ground game
Projected for 20 carries and 106 rushing yards, with Jahmyr Gibbs taking 86% of the work. Carries per game is the second most repeatable thing a player has — 0.97 between halves of a season — so a backfield split holds up far better than a touchdown rate does.
| Player | Carries | Rush yds | Yds/carry | Anytime TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs RB | 17.5 | 89 | 5.08 | 61% |
| Sione Vaki RB | 2.8 | 17 | 6.12 | 14% |
Whose role has changed since last season
Snap share this season against last, for anyone who has moved at least six points. This is the input the model leans on hardest early in a year, because snap share is already reliable at 0.84 after two games while receptions manage 0.66.