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If Jahmyr Gibbs is out, who gets his targets?
The Detroit Lions room absorbs +0.64 receptions, and Sione Vaki takes the largest single share at +0.56. The work stays overwhelmingly inside the running back room.
Where the work goes
Change in projected receptions for every other player in the offense. The bars are small on purpose — a vacated role is shared out, and any tool showing one replacement absorbing a whole target load is telling you something the data does not support.
Every player in the room
| Player | Catches now | If he sits | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown WR · 86% snaps | 6.80 | 6.80 | +0.00 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs RB · 75% snaps | 4.70 | — | OUT |
| Sam LaPorta TE · 90% snaps | 4.50 | 4.54 | +0.04 |
| Jameson Williams WR · 88% snaps | 3.90 | 3.90 | +0.00 |
| Isaac TeSlaa WR · 64% snaps | 1.90 | 1.90 | +0.00 |
| Brock Wright TE · 45% snaps | 1.10 | 1.14 | +0.04 |
| Sione Vaki RB · 26% snaps | 0.60 | 1.16 | +0.56 |
| Jackson Meeks WR · 8% snaps | 0.60 | 0.60 | +0.00 |
| Tom Kennedy WR · 0% snaps | 0.50 | 0.50 | +0.00 |
What the data says happens
Measured across every regular-season game from 2018 onward, each beneficiary compared against his own trailing four-game form and net of what the same players do in weeks the room’s number one actually plays.
| Room | Receptions gained | n | t |
|---|---|---|---|
| Receivers | +0.112 | 2,094 | 2.36 |
| Tight ends | +0.103 | 1,258 | 2.16 |
| Backs | +0.610 | 1,042 | 11.17 |
The room total is predictable. Which player takes it is not. Every candidate predictor of who gains — pecking order, snap share, route depth, trailing targets — correlates at roughly r = 0.02. In any single week one player usually takes about 60% of what was vacated; it is simply not predictably the same one.
Jahmyr Gibbs’s full stats and usageSnap share, target share, game log and this week’s projection