Jahmyr Gibbs

Detroit Lions · Running backRB1

Over 17 games last season Jahmyr Gibbs averaged 4.5 receptions and 36 yards on 67% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 4.7 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

4.7

0.2 above his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Rush attempts

17.5

Rushing yards

Anytime TD

61%

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 2 and 8 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	4.7 projected
26 wk3	NYJ	69%	25.8%	8	7	65	20	99	3	4.4 +2.6
26 wk2	BUF	83%	21.1%	8	6	61	16	52	1	—
26 wk1	NO	74%	12.8%	5	5	30	29	156	2	—
25 wk18	CHI	71%	13.9%	5	3	33	19	80	1	—
25 wk17	MIN	69%	10.3%	3	2	23	17	41	0	—
25 wk16	PIT	86%	25.0%	13	10	66	7	2	1	—
25 wk15	LA	81%	18.4%	7	4	20	13	38	0	—
25 wk14	DAL	69%	22.6%	7	7	77	12	43	3	—
25 wk13	GB	70%	14.8%	4	3	18	20	68	0	—
25 wk12	NYG	74%	31.6%	12	11	45	15	219	3	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 19 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	15 of 19	79%
5+ receptions	8 of 19	42%
7+ receptions	4 of 19	21%
50+ receiving yards	5 of 19	26%
75+ receiving yards	3 of 19	16%
100+ receiving yards	1 of 19	5%
Scored a touchdown	12 of 19	63%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	Carries/gm	Rush yds/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	3	6.0	52.0	7.0	21.7	102.3	6	75%	19.9%
2025	17	4.5	36.2	5.5	14.3	71.9	18	67%	16.2%
2024	18	3.2	32.6	4.1	14.7	84.3	22	56%	12.3%
2023	18	3.5	22.8	4.7	11.7	60.5	14	54%	13.5%

4 seasons of usage, 2023–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Jahmyr Gibbs sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the DET room — with sample size and t-statistic The whole Detroit Lions roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about running backs

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how much Do touchdowns repeat from year to year?Much less than receptions

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4