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Amon-Ra St. Brown

Detroit Lions · Wide receiverWR1

Over 17 games last season Amon-Ra St. Brown averaged 6.9 receptions and 82 yards on 85% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 6.8 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions
6.8
0.1 below his 2025 average
Receiving yards
84
Anytime TD
57%
third-down role (+0.05)

What a realistic week looks like

02%14%28%311%413%514%613%711%89%96%105%113%122%13Receptions
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 3 and 10 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

GameOppSnap shareTarget shareTgtRecRec ydsTDWe said
26 wk4———————6.8 projected
26 wk3NYJ74%25.8%841916.9 -2.9
26 wk2BUF95%34.2%1391422—
26 wk1NO90%35.9%1410672—
25 wk18CHI95%41.7%15111390—
25 wk17MIN83%44.8%138680—
25 wk16PIT97%17.3%94540—
25 wk15LA95%47.4%18131642—
25 wk14DAL92%29.0%96920—
25 wk13GB6%3.7%1000—
25 wk12NYG97%34.2%1391491—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 19 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

OutcomeGames it happenedHow often
3+ receptions17 of 1989%
5+ receptions15 of 1979%
7+ receptions12 of 1963%
50+ receiving yards15 of 1979%
75+ receiving yards10 of 1953%
100+ receiving yards6 of 1932%
Scored a touchdown9 of 1947%

Career by season

Amon-Ra St. Brown: snap share and target share by season020406080100202120222023202420252026Snap shareTarget shareSeasonshare of the team
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
SeasonGamesCatches/gmRec yds/gmTargets/gmTDs, seasonSnap shareTarget share
2026 so far37.776.011.7586%32.0%
2025176.982.410.11185%31.7%
2024186.877.88.41289%26.7%
2023197.494.210.41190%29.9%
2022166.672.69.1678%27.8%
2021175.353.67.0675%21.5%

6 seasons of usage, 2021–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Amon-Ra St. Brown sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the DET room — with sample size and t-statisticThe whole Detroit Lions roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about wide receivers

Are players better coming off a bye week?They are slightly worseDo defenses shut down the other team’s best receiver?Barely

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4