Isaac TeSlaa

Detroit Lions · Wide receiverWR3

Over 17 games last season Isaac TeSlaa averaged 0.9 receptions and 14 yards on 40% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 1.9 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

1.9

1.0 above his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Anytime TD

15%

third-down role (+0.05)

His snap share has grown from last season. The projection is lifted to reflect the larger role.

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 4 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.9 projected
26 wk3	NYJ	48%	9.7%	3	3	66	0	1.6 +1.4
26 wk2	BUF	75%	13.2%	5	2	26	0	—
26 wk1	NO	68%	2.6%	1	0	0	0	—
25 wk18	CHI	60%	2.8%	1	1	18	0	—
25 wk17	MIN	52%	13.8%	4	3	49	1	—
25 wk16	PIT	55%	13.5%	7	4	52	1	—
25 wk15	LA	62%	2.6%	1	0	0	0	—
25 wk14	DAL	77%	9.7%	3	2	20	1	—
25 wk13	GB	92%	7.4%	2	2	35	1	—
25 wk12	NYG	41%	2.6%	1	0	0	0	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 19 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	2 of 19	11%
5+ receptions	0 of 19	0%
7+ receptions	0 of 19	0%
50+ receiving yards	1 of 19	5%
75+ receiving yards	0 of 19	0%
100+ receiving yards	0 of 19	0%
Scored a touchdown	6 of 19	32%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	3	1.7	30.7	3.0	0	64%	8.5%
2025	17	0.9	14.1	1.6	6	40%	4.7%

2 seasons of usage, 2025–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

The whole Detroit Lions roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about wide receivers

Are players better coming off a bye week?They are slightly worse Do defenses shut down the other team’s best receiver?Barely

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4