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If Sam LaPorta is out, who gets his targets?

The Detroit Lions room absorbs +1.06 receptions, and Brock Wright takes the largest single share at +0.71. The work stays overwhelmingly inside the tight end room.

Where the work goes

Change in projected receptions for every other player in the offense. The bars are small on purpose — a vacated role is shared out, and any tool showing one replacement absorbing a whole target load is telling you something the data does not support.

Receptions gained if Sam LaPorta sitsBrock Wright+0.7TE 45% snapsAmon-Ra St. Bro…+0.1WR 86% snapsJameson Williams+0.1WR 88% snapsIsaac TeSlaa+0.1WR 64% snapsJackson Meeks+0.1WR 8% snapsTom Kennedy+0.1WR 0% snapschange in projected receptions

Every player in the room

PlayerCatches nowIf he sitsChange
Amon-Ra St. Brown WR · 86% snaps6.806.87+0.07
Jahmyr Gibbs RB · 75% snaps4.704.70+0.00
Sam LaPorta TE · 90% snaps4.50—OUT
Jameson Williams WR · 88% snaps3.903.97+0.07
Isaac TeSlaa WR · 64% snaps1.901.97+0.07
Brock Wright TE · 45% snaps1.001.71+0.71
Sione Vaki RB · 26% snaps0.600.60+0.00
Jackson Meeks WR · 8% snaps0.600.67+0.07
Tom Kennedy WR · 0% snaps0.500.57+0.07

What the data says happens

Measured across every regular-season game from 2018 onward, each beneficiary compared against his own trailing four-game form and net of what the same players do in weeks the room’s number one actually plays.

RoomReceptions gainednt
Receivers+0.1072,1602.29
Tight ends+0.4921,0249.57
Backs-0.0451,259-0.92

The room total is predictable. Which player takes it is not. Every candidate predictor of who gains — pecking order, snap share, route depth, trailing targets — correlates at roughly r = 0.02. In any single week one player usually takes about 60% of what was vacated; it is simply not predictably the same one.

Sam LaPorta’s full stats and usageSnap share, target share, game log and this week’s projection

Cascade effects 2018–2026, paired within player, net of control · projections as-of-week with no lookahead · 2026 week 4