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JW

Jameson Williams

Detroit Lions · Wide receiverWR2

Over 17 games last season Jameson Williams averaged 3.8 receptions and 66 yards on 90% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 3.9 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions
3.9
0.1 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
57
Anytime TD
21%

What a realistic week looks like

4%011%116%218%316%413%59%66%74%82%910111213Receptions
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 1 and 7 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

GameOppSnap shareTarget shareTgtRecRec ydsCarRush ydsTDWe said
26 wk4—————————3.9 projected
26 wk3NYJ82%12.9%44490004.0 -0.0
26 wk2BUF97%10.5%4233000—
26 wk1NO84%23.1%9445000—
25 wk18CHI95%22.2%8674000—
25 wk17MIN83%10.3%3237000—
25 wk16PIT95%17.3%9570000—
25 wk15LA91%26.3%107134001—
25 wk14DAL92%29.0%9796170—
25 wk13GB94%37.0%1071441-51—
25 wk12NYG97%7.9%300000—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 19 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

OutcomeGames it happenedHow often
3+ receptions11 of 1958%
5+ receptions7 of 1937%
7+ receptions3 of 1916%
50+ receiving yards10 of 1953%
75+ receiving yards6 of 1932%
100+ receiving yards4 of 1921%
Scored a touchdown7 of 1937%

Career by season

Jameson Williams: snap share and target share by season02040608010020222023202420252026Snap shareTarget shareSeasonshare of the team
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
SeasonGamesCatches/gmRec yds/gmTargets/gmTDs, seasonSnap shareTarget share
2026 so far33.342.35.7088%15.5%
2025173.865.76.0790%18.6%
2024163.763.85.9980%18.2%
2023152.028.93.4556%9.6%
202260.26.81.5119%4.5%

5 seasons of usage, 2022–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Jameson Williams sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the DET room — with sample size and t-statisticThe whole Detroit Lions roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about wide receivers

Are players better coming off a bye week?They are slightly worseDo defenses shut down the other team’s best receiver?Barely

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4