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Brock Wright

Detroit Lions · Tight endTE2

Over 11 games last season Brock Wright averaged 1.3 receptions and 10 yards on 58% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 1.1 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions
1.1
0.2 below his 2025 average
Receiving yards
10
Anytime TD
14%
His snap share has fallen from last season. The projection is pulled down to reflect the smaller role rather than last year’s.

What a realistic week looks like

42%030%116%27%345678910111213Receptions
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 3 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

GameOppSnap shareTarget shareTgtRecRec ydsTDWe said
26 wk4———————1.1 projected
26 wk3NYJ58%6.5%22701.0 +1.0
26 wk2BUF26%0.0%0000—
26 wk1NO51%2.6%1150—
25 wk12NYG88%10.5%43290—
25 wk11PHI83%19.4%7280—
25 wk10WAS39%3.1%1000—
25 wk9MIN55%2.8%11110—
25 wk7TB54%10.7%33230—
25 wk6KC57%0.0%0000—
25 wk5CIN73%13.0%3291—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 13 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

OutcomeGames it happenedHow often
3+ receptions3 of 1323%
5+ receptions0 of 130%
7+ receptions0 of 130%
50+ receiving yards0 of 130%
75+ receiving yards0 of 130%
100+ receiving yards0 of 130%
Scored a touchdown2 of 1315%

Career by season

Brock Wright: snap share and target share by season020406080100202120222023202420252026Snap shareTarget shareSeasonshare of the team
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
SeasonGamesCatches/gmRec yds/gmTargets/gmTDs, seasonSnap shareTarget share
2026 so far31.04.01.0045%3.0%
2025111.39.82.0258%6.4%
2024180.75.60.9250%3.7%
2023160.97.50.9143%2.9%
2022171.112.71.4452%4.7%
2021101.211.71.7247%5.3%

6 seasons of usage, 2021–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Brock Wright sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the DET room — with sample size and t-statisticThe whole Detroit Lions roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about tight ends

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how muchIs any defense actually “weak against tight ends”?Not a real trait

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4