Over 17 games last season Michael Wilson averaged 4.6 receptions and 59 yards on 81% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 5.1 receptions.
Week 4 projection
Receptions
5.1
0.6 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
68
Anytime TD
36%
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 2 and 9 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
How his role is trending
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
TD
We said
26 wk4
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
5.1 projected
26 wk3
SF
93%
34.0%
17
11
89
1
4.3 +6.7
26 wk2
SEA
94%
26.9%
7
2
18
0
—
26 wk1
LAC
85%
18.9%
7
5
56
0
—
25 wk18
LA
93%
28.6%
8
5
99
1
—
25 wk17
CIN
86%
28.6%
10
5
89
1
—
25 wk16
ATL
86%
10.3%
3
2
52
1
—
25 wk15
HOU
85%
28.9%
11
5
54
1
—
25 wk14
LA
79%
36.4%
16
11
142
2
—
25 wk13
TB
93%
18.9%
7
3
36
0
—
25 wk12
JAX
82%
32.6%
15
10
118
0
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 19 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
13 of 19
68%
5+ receptions
7 of 19
37%
7+ receptions
3 of 19
16%
50+ receiving yards
9 of 19
47%
75+ receiving yards
5 of 19
26%
100+ receiving yards
3 of 19
16%
Scored a touchdown
6 of 19
32%
Career by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Season
Games
Catches/gm
Rec yds/gm
Targets/gm
TDs, season
Snap share
Target share
2026 so far
3
6.0
54.3
10.3
1
91%
26.6%
2025
17
4.6
59.2
7.4
7
81%
19.2%
2024
16
2.9
34.2
4.4
4
80%
14.5%
2023
13
2.9
43.5
4.5
3
80%
13.6%
4 seasons of usage, 2023–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016