Kyren Williams

Los Angeles Rams · Running backRB1

Over 20 games last season Kyren Williams averaged 2.2 receptions and 18 yards on 67% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 3.0 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

3.0

0.8 above his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Rush attempts

14.2

Rushing yards

Anytime TD

35%

third-down role (+0.05)

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 1 and 6 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	3.0 projected
26 wk3	DEN	71%	14.3%	7	6	70	15	88	0	2.5 +3.5
26 wk2	NYG	55%	6.7%	2	2	12	12	85	1	—
26 wk1	SF	64%	11.1%	3	3	24	11	41	1	—
25 wk21	SEA	51%	5.9%	2	2	22	10	39	1	—
25 wk20	CHI	63%	12.5%	5	4	30	21	87	2	—
25 wk19	CAR	63%	4.8%	2	2	18	13	57	1	—
25 wk18	ARI	63%	13.5%	5	3	21	12	60	0	—
25 wk17	ATL	71%	8.3%	3	3	38	13	92	0	—
25 wk16	SEA	71%	12.5%	6	3	15	23	70	0	—
25 wk15	DET	54%	2.6%	1	1	10	15	78	2	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 22 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	7 of 22	32%
5+ receptions	1 of 22	5%
7+ receptions	1 of 22	5%
50+ receiving yards	1 of 22	5%
75+ receiving yards	0 of 22	0%
100+ receiving yards	0 of 22	0%
Scored a touchdown	15 of 22	68%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	Carries/gm	Rush yds/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	3	3.7	35.3	4.0	12.7	71.3	2	63%	10.7%
2025	20	2.2	17.6	3.0	15.2	71.8	17	67%	8.0%
2024	18	2.1	10.9	2.5	19.5	82.3	17	87%	7.9%
2023	13	2.5	16.5	3.8	18.5	92.7	15	81%	10.4%
2022	8	1.1	9.5	1.5	4.4	17.4	0	30%	5.2%

5 seasons of usage, 2022–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Kyren Williams sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the LA room — with sample size and t-statistic The whole Los Angeles Rams roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about running backs

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how much Do touchdowns repeat from year to year?Much less than receptions

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4